Talking Points

Much discussion has taken place over the opening weeks of the new season about the thousands of empty seats at Premiership grounds, and the perceived lack of exciting, attacking football on the pitch.Much discussion has taken place over the opening weeks of the new season about the thousands of empty seats at Premiership grounds, and the perceived lack of exciting, attacking football on the pitch.

It is a widely held view that both topics are intrinsically linked and will be solved if incentives to play in a more attractive manner are introduced.

Some suggestions are bonus points for away wins, no points for goalless draws, additional points for more than three goals scored in a game, extra points for ten shots on target and so on.

Those who believe that the beauty of football is that it is a simple game, and should stay that way, will be encouraged by the findings of a US study that reveals that - opposite to the seemingly universal accepted perception - even the increase to three points for a win has had a negative effect.

‘Sabotage in Tournaments: Making the Beautiful Game a Bit Less Beautiful’ is an exhaustive statistical analysis produced by Luis Garicano of the University of Chicago and Ignacio Palacios-Huerta from Brown University in Providence, Rhode Island.

They conclude that, in cases of changes in professional leagues aimed at encouraging more attacking play and goalscoring, there has been a response but not what might be reasonably expected: “Although teams increased offensive effort, they also increased destructive effort (`sabotage’) substantially, resulting in no net change in scoring.

“When ahead, teams became more conservative, increasing their defenders, scoring less goals, and allowing fewer attempts to score by their opponents.

“We also find that teams that engage more in sabotage activities depress the attendance at their rival’s home stadiums, and that indeed attendance suffered as a result of the incentive change.

“Thus, teams responded to stronger incentives, but in an undesirable way.“

More details of the study can be found on the Centre for Economic Policy Research web site. (Ref: DP5231)

Anyone for two points for a win?