Third Fear

Ipswich Town’s defeat at Wolverhampton Wanderers last night means that the Suffolk club remain out of the two automatic promotion places on goal difference only as the exciting Championship campaign continues towards a nail-biting climax.Ipswich Town’s defeat at Wolverhampton Wanderers last night means that the Suffolk club remain out of the two automatic promotion places on goal difference only as the exciting Championship campaign continues towards a nail-biting climax.

It has appeared for many weeks that one of Town, Wigan Athletic or Sunderland will unfortunately miss out and have to fight for a treasured Premiership slot via the Play-Offs.

The perception is that the club finishing in third place does not prosper in the Play-Offs and an analysis of the Play-Offs for a top flight place since it became a competition between four Championship / First Division / old Second Division clubs in 1988 certainly proves that the preceding nine months work provides no advantage.

Of those 16 previous seasons, the third placed club (or its equivalent) has gone on to win the Play-Offs only four times. Ipswich were one of the four when they beat Barnsley 4-2 in the 1999-00 final, and one of the 12 failures when they went out in the 1998-99 semi-final to Bolton Wanderers on the away goal rule. That was one of eight times that the third club has fallen at the first hurdle.

Overall, it can be reasonably concluded that the old saying that Play-Offs are a lottery is well founded. The fourth placed club (or equivalent) has been promoted three times, the fifth (or equivalent) five and the sixth (or equivalent) on four occasions.

Sunderland currently have a five-point advantage over Wigan and Ipswich but, with four games to go, there’s still the potential for a dramatic change especially as the Black Cats go to Portman Road for their next game.

Mick McCarthy’s men also have to travel to Play-Off hopefuls West Ham United whilst they entertain Leicester City and Stoke City.

Crewe Alexandra are the team to complete the Portman Road programme. The Tractor Boys are also on the road to Leeds United and Brighton & Hove Albion.

Meanwhile, Wigan Athletic visit Leicester City and Preston North End, and play host to Queens Park Rangers and Reading who are currently in sixth place.

Our photo shows the Ipswich Town team that won the First Division championship in 1962